Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 3.306008 3.964950 4.700496 5.579399 6.597838 7.737545 9.106070
2025-04-13 2.189224 3.016531 4.051677 5.427993 7.194042 9.366785 12.222432
2025-04-20 1.710724 2.650307 3.942595 5.815120 8.417526 11.859000 16.696878
2025-04-27 1.331909 2.293444 3.731695 5.976795 9.314883 14.001272 20.959525
2025-05-04 1.083884 2.051968 3.611466 6.207767 10.295429 16.327316 25.694477
2025-05-11 0.858667 1.781924 3.378308 6.201241 10.886057 18.118353 29.809745
2025-05-18 0.658362 1.498217 3.055798 5.976373 11.073444 19.284085 33.062583
2025-05-25 0.498221 1.243898 2.726208 5.668733 11.057643 20.094252 35.797721
2025-06-01 0.401434 1.091288 2.551547 5.601217 11.427459 21.543460 39.657137
2025-06-08 0.324964 0.960775 2.391463 5.528214 11.765013 22.951901 43.546650
2025-06-15 0.292491 0.926425 2.425292 5.841685 12.852150 25.750798 50.013797
2025-06-22 0.246653 0.843615 2.334203 5.878363 13.402088 27.625982 54.999377
2025-06-29 0.204752 0.760163 2.229043 5.878393 13.900382 29.491295 60.195737
2025-07-06 0.168749 0.681644 2.119496 5.852169 14.345190 31.304669 65.462454
2025-07-13 0.158775 0.682365 2.213607 6.315896 15.881243 35.349937 75.182729
2025-07-20 0.139423 0.644598 2.196578 6.508075 16.846322 38.348546 83.129365
2025-07-27 0.124725 0.617966 2.204763 6.763552 17.978785 41.769546 92.119478
2025-08-03 0.104776 0.562956 2.117637 6.758938 18.513711 44.008109 98.942637
2025-08-10 0.082758 0.488657 1.952687 6.517376 18.460387 45.009202 103.363478
2025-08-17 0.063391 0.414848 1.768207 6.185859 18.143525 45.411809 106.585099
2025-08-24 0.052152 0.373114 1.679883 6.113114 18.456870 47.204650 112.787823
2025-08-31 0.042798 0.335334 1.594877 6.034374 18.743426 48.956121 119.012023
2025-09-07 0.040030 0.333159 1.642340 6.372575 20.157889 53.362572 131.158545